Magpies’ 12-point survival plan

Feb 12 2008 by Luke Edwards, The Journal

Kevin Keegan believes Newcastle United need 40 points to be certain of safety but the form guide suggests they will be safe with less – just. Chief Sports Writer Luke Edwards investigates

PREDICTING what will happen in promotion chases and relegation battles is normally about as reliable as a soothsayer’s long-range weather forecast. But one thing is certain, Newcastle United have every reason to be nervous about what their immediate future holds.

When a team in the bottom half of the table endures a run of form as miserable as Newcastle have since the start of December, relegation should be a worry.

Whatever way the statistics are used, the Magpies are in trouble. They have not won in nine Premier League games, they have taken just three points from the last 27, conceding 24 goals and scoring just nine. In their last three away games in the league they have let in 13. In their last three home games they have scored only once.

It is the sort of form which can get a manager sacked, but as Keegan has only just returned to St James’s Park to answer the club’s latest SOS call, presumably that is not a fate that awaits him.

For those who are looking for positive omens it should be pointed out that, when Keegan last rescued the club from relegation to the old third division back in 1992, things initially appeared to get worse before they got better – much better. For once, we must hope history repeats itself.

After a week in which he denied he was thinking about relegation, the second-half capitulation to Aston Villa on Saturday was enough to convince United’s manager that his team were in real danger of being dragged into the drop zone.

When Keegan agreed to return to St James’s Park for a second time as manager he knew the job in front of him was not going to be an easy one, but only now, perhaps, does he realise the full extent of it. Keegan said, days after his arrival from the Soccer Circus in Glasgow, he had never worked with a better squad of players. He has certainly not worked with a more under-achieving one.

Clearly angered and frustrated by what he had seen at Villa Park, Keegan insisted his shell-shocked players had to look to secure another 12 points from their remaining 12 games if they were going to be certain of retaining their top-flight status.

It is a target a team of United’s supposed ability should be able to scrape together, but it is by no means a foregone conclusion with home games against Manchester United and Chelsea awaiting them, while trips to Liverpool, Tottenham, West Ham and Everton also look daunting given the collapse at Villa last weekend.

Nobody in football – and rightly so – will ever concede defeat before a ball has been kicked, but Newcastle will also know there are games out there more easily winnable than others.

It is the stock phrase of the relegation-threatened manager, but it was not one United’s fans and players thought they would be using back in August. Nevertheless, the games against Newcastle’s fellow strugglers will be the vital ones between now and May.

With that in mind, the home games against Fulham and Reading look crucial and could, if Newcastle play to their potential, yield half of their manager’s points target. Then again, having failed to beat either Derby County or Bolton Wanderers at St James’s Park in recent weeks, nothing can be taken for granted.

The trip to Birmingham City on March 17 is another game against a side haunted by relegation fears and with form almost as bad as their own. United have only won two away games all season, but this could still be one they need to take something from. And then there is the intriguing derby clash with Sunderland who, despite their recent improvement in form, have not won on the road since they were promoted, have lost their last nine games away from the Stadium of Light and are still two points worse off than their under-fire neighbours on Tyneside.

The Wearsiders have relegation worries of their own, but they are in much better form than Newcastle and would love to secure their first derby win since Niall Quinn and Don Hutchison scored the goals which earned the points at St James’s Park in November 2000. The words insult and injury spring to mind.

On the basis of the last 12 games, from which United have taken 10 points, Newcastle will be safe this season if they replicate their current form in the final dozen matches of the campaign, but it might have more to do with the inadequacies of the teams already below them than their own efforts. On the basis of that same form guide, the Magpies would also suffer the embarrassment of finishing below both Sunderland and Middlesbrough. Already an overused joke nationally, regional pride should mean plenty to them.

Furthermore, while 10 more points would be enough to ensure top-flight survival, it should be noted that a 38-point finishing total would still be the club’s worst-ever Premier League haul and the first time they have collected less than 40 points since the renaming of English football’s top division. Glenn Roeder currently holds that dubious distinction following last season’s 43-point haul. Most United fans thought that was a new low in the club’s history, but it is starting to look as though they were sadly mistaken.