Study details changing face of weather
Jun 19 2009 by Tony Henderson, The Journal
NEW climate change predictions issued yesterday spell out what the North East is likely to face.
The cutting-edge scientific projections, launched yesterday by Environment Secretary Hilary Benn, provide the most detailed picture to date of the threat facing Britain from soaring summer temperatures, more extreme weather and rising sea levels.
The Government figures are based on the latest climate research and findings and update a similar exercise carried out seven years ago.
In 2002, predictions were based on grids 50k square. Now that has been localised even further to boxes of 25k square.
Under a medium greenhouse gas emissions scenario the figures show that by the 2080s the North East could have to deal with:
An increase in average summer temperatures of 3.7 C and in winter a rise of 2.6C
Summer rainfall likely to reduce by 17%.
There could be 14% more rainfall in the winter leading to increased winter flooding, transport disruption and risks to urban drainage
By 2080 places like Saltburn could see sea level rises of 34cm.
The UK Climate Projections 2009, based on Met Office science, illustrate the extent of the changes the UK might face in the absence of global action to cut emissions – warmer and wetter winters, hotter and drier summers, increased risk of coastal erosion and more severe weather.
The projections show a range of climate changes up until the end of the century based on three possible greenhouse gas emissions pathways – high, medium and low. Broadly speaking the world’s emissions are currently equivalent to the medium pathway, although there is a risk we could still be heading for the high scenario.
The projections show that some climate change is now inevitable whatever we do.
Past emissions are likely to make summers over 2C hotter in southern England by the 2040s.
The 2003 heatwave saw average daily temperatures of 2C above average and caused 35,000 deaths across Northern Europe.
Mr Benn said: “There is no doubt about it – climate change is the biggest challenge facing the world today. Climate change is already happening – the hottest ten years on record globally have all been since 1990. This landmark scientific evidence shows not only that we need to tackle the causes of climate change but also that we must deal with the consequences.”
Adaptation work is already taking place in the North East through:
The region was also the first in Europe to have all its councils sign up in 2009 to the European Covenant of Mayors committing local authorities to work to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Nick Brown, Regional Minister for the North East who today will visit the County Durham glassmaking firm Romag, which makes solar power products, said: "The projections demonstrate the importance of tackling climate change.”
Newcastle University’s Department of Engineering and Geosciences developed the website which allows people access to the data. Go to http://ukcp09.defra.gov.uk/
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