Brown urged to face the music

May 9 2008 by William Green, The Journal

GORDON Brown could lose seats in his North East strongholds and face defeat at the next general election, a new analysis by The Journal reveals today.

If the party’s disastrous showing in last week’s local polls is repeated during a national vote, Labour’s grip on the region could be loosened at a general election.

By adding the latest opinion poll figures to the equation, the signs are that Labour would shed votes in its heartlands, enough to help oust it from government.

Last night a YouGov survey for a national tabloid newspaper put the Tories ahead of Labour by 26%, while Labour’s support fell to its the lowest on record at just 23%. David Cameron’s Opposition, fresh from success at the ballot box last week, secured the support of almost half of voters (49%).

In the North East, Labour currently holds 28 Parliamentary constituencies, leaving the Conservatives with one MP – Peter Atkinson in Hexham – and Liberal Democrats also with one, Alan Beith in Berwick.

After last week’s council elections, the Liberal Democrats are optimistic about winning the Newcastle North and East seats, which would oust regional minister Nick Brown, and in Durham and even south east Northumberland.

The Conservatives believe they could win Tynemouth and the new seat of Sunderland Central.

Their confidence comes after Labour lost control in Northumberland, shedding 18 of 35 seats, and the Liberal Democrats became the biggest party on the new unitary county council.

In Newcastle, the Liberal Democrat administration strengthened its hold by taking seats from Labour. Labour still runs Gateshead but its dominance in Durham was cut back after it was left with a smaller than expected majority on the county’s new unitary authority.

Conservatives took control of North Tyneside Council and increased their councillors in Sunderland, but have no seats in Newcastle or Gateshead.

Electoral expert John Curtice of Strathclyde University, analysing the results exclusively for The Journal, said the Tory share of the local election vote rose by 4% to 44% in a situation largely repeated across the county.

Labour scored 24% this year, the lowest recorded level, and left the party in third place compared to second with 27% in 2007. Liberal Democrats came second this year on 25%, although their share of the vote was down 1% on the previous year.

The margin is similar to the beating handed to Tory Prime Minister John Major in council elections in 1995, two years before losing to Tony Blair.

Prof Curtice said the Conservatives have an average lead of 10 points in the opinion polls – compared to three points behind at the last general election – which equates to a 6.5% swing in their favour.

At the next election, the Tories need a 5.85% swing to claim Tynemouth and the Liberal Democrats need just 3.7% to win Durham City.

Prof Curtice added that the Tories would win the new Sunderland Central seat on the basis of local election results. “It is possible the grip is going to loosen in the sense that if the Tories are going to win, Labour’s grip will get loosened everywhere,” he added.

The electoral expert questioned how well the Liberal Democrats would do, with their national polling down.

But John Shipley, Liberal Democrat leader of Newcastle Council, said there was an enormous opportunity to win the Newcastle East and North seats. “In most parts of the North East, it is the Lib Dems who are in pole position to take the seats from Labour, not the Conservatives,” he added.

Mr Shipley also said victories were possible in Newcastle Central, Blyth and Durham after the local election results.

Conservative local government spokesman Eric Pickles said the party had an eye on Tynemouth and Sunderland Central.

“There might be a few others, but who would have a thought a few years ago that we were within a shot of that in the North East,” added Mr Pickles.

He said the Conservatives could win a general election without improving its North East MP tally, but stressed the party wanted to represent every part of the country.