Forecast is for fires, flooding and gales

May 1 2008 by Graeme Whitfield, The Journal

A WORLD-first study which predicts how climate change will hit the North East was unveiled yesterday. The pioneering work, which looks at the impact of climate change to 2050, is the first to cover an entire UK region and means that the North East is the only region worldwide to produce a study of this kind, using detailed analytical techniques.

The study looks at the impact of climate change on the region’s services, assets, communities, businesses natural resources and infrastructure and seeks to stimulate debate and planning on how the North East should adapt to what is to come. It also recommends the action that needs to be taken now.

The work was commissioned by the North East Climate Change Partnership, which was launched last July and has 60 members.

Last night the study drew praise from Climate Change Minister Joan Ruddock, who said: “We should be under no illusions about the need to adapt to climate change. The science is clear and the economic message is stark.

“Everyone needs to wake up to the fact that climate change is happening now.”

The study says: “Climate change is a reality that affects us all and its implications are profoundly important for the North East. These implications will become more severe over time and we need to start to adapt our vulnerable systems, assets and management approaches to this challenge now, both individually and collectively.”

Some claim that the North East, with its history of coal and heavy industrialisation, has been a significant contributor to climate change.

But the study points out that the region is now “creating a new legacy by leading the research on climate change predictions, impacts, assessment and adaptation, which is significantly contributing solutions.” Along with other areas of the UK, the North East has already suffered extensively from the effects of climate change with the heavy floods of 2005 and the recent extreme gales.

Climate change predictions from the study suggest that in the future the region could be affected by more flooding, wildfires, and extreme weather patterns, with hotter, drier summers and much wetter winters.

But the study says climate change also opens the door to the possibility of new economic opportunities.

Investment in innovative new technologies could create thousands of jobs, thus strengthening the economy and putting the region at the forefront of the renewable energy industry. Tourism could also benefit and there are business opportunities in areas like biofuels, low carbon power generation and waste and energy management.

Minister for the North East Nick Brown said: “I welcome the detailed consideration that has gone into the study. It underlines the need to adjust to climate change.”

Adrian Hilton, the North East’s regional climate change coordinator, said: “We are already in the middle of climate change. The study makes clear what we should expect in the region. People need to be aware of what the impacts will be.”

The next step takes place today when Mr Hilton launches the partnership’s Climate Change Action Plan for the North East, which will go out for consultation for the next six months.

It never rains...

THE Cheviot Hills and the surrounding upland areas currently receive the greatest amount of annual rainfall in Northumberland, and it is these areas that can expect the greatest reduction in annual average rainfall by the 2050s, of around 3% and 5%.

Future rainfall will become increasingly seasonal, with summer decreases and winter increases in rainfall.

The upland areas will also experience large increases in winter rainfall, of up to around 14%.

The lower-lying and coastal areas of Northumberland can expect summer decreases of around 25% to 32%.

Getting hotter

AN increase in winter rainfall in the North East and a reduction in summer are among the predictions for climate change in the region to 2050.

Key predictions for the North East are that daily average temperatures will rise as follows:

Annual – around 1.7 to 1.8 ºC

Winter – around 1.2 to 1.4 ºC

Spring – around 1.5 to 1.7 ºC

Summer – around 2.0 to 2.3 ºC

Autumn – around 1.9 to 2.1 ºC

Extreme hot temperatures will increase by around 2.6 to 3.1 ºC and heatwaves will significantly increase in frequency.

We can more regularly expect summer daily average temperatures of around 25C and there will be more days at 28C and above.

Extreme rainfall events show variability across the region, with some locations experiencing around 10% to 20% increases.

More disease

RISING temperatures in the North East will result in increased abundance and longer survival of midges and ticks that can spread infectious diseases amongst humans and animals.

There will be increased likelihood of tick-borne diseases such as encephalitis and Lyme disease as well as diarrhoea in humans, largely contracted in more rural areas. Also in these areas, there is likely to be increased tendency for diseases such as bluetongue amongst cattle, sheep, deer and goats.

Rats and flies are likely to increase in urban areas as refuse is affected by high temperatures before it is collected and disposed of.