JUST like the elements, Stormy Weather has been hard to predict since arriving from France where he was placed on the Flat at Listed level.
He started odds-on for his hurdles debut at Aintree in October 2009, and lost out in a photo after a slow jump at the last. He was beaten into second spot again at Catterick before making it third time lucky at Newcastle.
That was almost two years ago and he hasn’t won since, although on his only other appearance that season he finished a creditable fifth to Sanctuaire in the Fred Winter Juvenile Novices’ Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham off a mark of 123.
He has switched stables since and is now with Brian Ellison, and the last time he ran at Newcastle he contested the Stan James Fighting Fifth Hurdle.
He had no chance of winning but his trainer knew what he was doing.
Stormy Weather earned connections over £5,000 for finishing a distant fourth and picked up more worthwhile place money when sixth in the International Hurdle at Cheltenham, where again he was a no-hoper. However, it was mission completed as he accumulated enough cash to cover his purchase price.
He is back on Tyneside today for the MGM Precision Handicap Hurdle, in which he has joint top weight but is 10lb lower than two years ago.
With the front-running Carlisle scorer Diamond d’Amour in the line-up, he should have the race run to suit provided Dougie Costello doesn’t give the leader too much rope, as seemed the case at Haydock last month when Tenor Nivernais made all and didn’t come back to his field.
Consequently, Stormy Weather never looked like justifying his short odds and was beaten 32 lengths.
The winner tried to follow up at Newbury but was anchored by the 17lb rise.
While a question mark remains as to what level form Stormy Weather is capable of these days, there are bigger ones hanging over most of the opposition, and this looks a match between the Ellison horse and Diamond d’Amour.
Ellison also runs Andreo Bambaleo in the North Sea Logistics Handicap Hurdle. He has failed to complete in his last two runs but has winning form to his name for another yard.
The blinkers are on for the first time and I can see him being a player off his low perch.
However, I prefer the veteran My Arch, who was fortunate to beat Simonside at Wetherby and was put in his place by the same rival when they clashed again at the same venue over Christmas.
Stepping back in distance and with no decent gallop, My Arch could only finish fourth. He will appreciate a return to three miles and softer ground and, provided they don’t crawl round, his stamina can see him through. He just doesn’t do things quickly.
Chances can be given to Aviador and Devotion To Duty, but the main danger promises to be Theologist, even though he has been beaten off lower marks. Blinkers have done him some good in his last two races although it could be argued that he missed the boat when coming up against an improver at Uttoxeter.
That was off 107 and he has been beaten five times on that rating and he is now 8lb higher, so it would seem he is up against it. I think otherwise.
One thing we learned from Artic Night’s Carlisle victory is that he loves heavy ground and he will have conditions to his liking for the Newcastle Flooring Handicap Hurdle.
Why there was so much money for him that day was a bit of a mystery considering how he had performed in his previous two attempts.
The trainer came up with the soft ground explanation, so a 7lb rise should not prove a stumbling block.
In the absence of any credible opposition, Micro Mission should defy a penalty for her Kelso success last month in the SV Rutter Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle, while Upthemsteps jumped well enough on his first start over fences on the back of a 271-day absence and can confirm that form with Negas de Beaumont in the STP Construction Beginners’ Chase.
