Bookies’ pointer for Cup

Sep 20 2008 by Doug Moscrop, The Journal

MY first impressions of the John Smith’s Ayr Gold Cup were that last year’s winner, Advanced, was handicapped to go close again at around 12-1 and that Confuchias also had a lot of ticks in the right boxes and was the value bet at 25-1.

That was on Monday but I was dismayed when both horses came in for daily support and their odds have shortened considerably. Advanced is now an 8-1 shot, while Confuchias has been backed at all rates down to as low as 7-1.

It seems a lot of punters have taken the same view about today’s 27-runner dash in testing conditions and, while the price may not be right or less attractive now, I feel there is no point looking elsewhere when their chances, if anything, have been enhanced.

With his stable among the winners again, Confuchias is first choice. He has been short of his best since joining Karl Burke this season after one run for Walter Swinburn, having arrived from Ireland.

Back in his native homeland, he was a high-class performer and came over last year to win the Group Three Chipchase Stakes at Newcastle on Plate Day when the ground was heavy.

While he failed to repeat that win in the same event this year for Burke, Confuchias put up his best effort for some time when first home on the stands’ side in the Great St Wilfrid Handicap. However, he was at a disadvantage with those that raced on the inside of the track and he was fifth overall.

That was off a mark of 100 – his rating having slipped from 109 as a result of his lack of success this summer – and he renews rivalry with the first three home at Ripon, Tajneed, Valery Borzov and Tamagin. I expect the winner to prove the pick of that trio again.

Confuchias was one of the first names to come out of the draw for the Ayr contest and Burke immediately plumped for a high number, next door to the Portland winner Hogmaneigh.

There are a few around Confuchias who like to be held up and that could cause traffic problems late on, but the selection’s prominent style of racing should see him grab the stands’ rail and keep out of trouble.

While Confuchias has had his problems, his trainer reports that he is in great form just at the right time. He stays further than six furlongs, which is an asset in these cavalry charges, and he loves heavy ground. Burke also says he is a grade above a handicapper when he is on song and let’s hope that’s the case today.

It’s 10 years since Burke was responsible for the first two home at Ayr with Always Alight inching out Daring Destiny who was attempting to win the prize for a second time, having landed the prize four years earlier as a three-year-old. That was in the days when the trainer was based at Wantage, then Newmarket, before moving up to Middleham where he has made his mark at Spigot Lodge stables. He has two other runners, including Aahayson, who would have a shout at his best, though it’s asking a lot of Burke to repeat his 1998 feat.

Now we come to Advanced who is worth a saver as he is drawn on the opposite side and could gain back-to-back wins here should low numbers come out on top as they did in the Silver Cup yesterday.

At the weights, Advanced has every chance. He can race off a 5lb lower mark than last year as a result of failing to get his head in front again since triumphing here.