It all hinges on conditions

Jul 5 2008 by Doug Moscrop, The Journal

IRRESPECTIVE of their obvious form claims, the weather probably holds the key to the chances of several fancied contenders on Haydock’s valuable card today.

My best advice is to make a late check on the state of the ground before having a wager, especially if your selections tally with a couple of mine. For example, Buccellati in the bet 365 Old Newton Cup.

While it was on the soft side of good when he completed his hat-trick last autumn in a heritage handicap at Ascot, he needed a late surge to get there, and he prefers a quicker surface.

Those were the conditions he had on a subsequent visit to Ascot where he had no luck in running in the Wolferton Handicap and finished a close fourth when he could have been second to Supaseus with a clear run.

With the visor back on, he pulled hard early on and didn’t have much room in which to manoeuvre in the last couple of furlongs. It was a solid effort in the circumstances and he ought to be a big player again this time if the breaks come at the right time for this hold-up performer.

Mad Rush was all the rage for the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes at Royal Ascot after a promising reappearance at Newmarket and, despite throwing down a strong challenge in the straight, he couldn’t get past the pacesetting Sugar Ray who boxed on bravely with every assistance from Ryan Moore.

He has gone up 5lb for that narrow defeat, but is lightly raced, should have more improvement in him, and looks a serious threat to Buccellati.

Carte Diamond hasn’t had much time to get over his exertions in the Northumberland Plate in which he was prominent for much of the journey until fading at the business end. While it’s too soon to write him off, I think he needs to come down a few pounds before he is of interest again.

Pippa Greene has done well with his limited opportunities and hinted on his York reappearance that further success can come his way in a strongly-run race and with some juice in the ground. He is another to consider.

Tombi is rated nap material for the bet365.com Conditions Stakes but also carries a weather warning. If the forecast rain materializes, enough to significantly alter the going, I trust his connections will withdraw him and we save our stake.

The four-year-old ran way below expectations in the Wokingham, beating only two rivals after racing with the leaders for half a mile and then fading rather tamely. To be fair to him, he was eased when all hope had gone.

He had been very impressive before that at York and I believe he has more to offer. He will need to bounce back if he is to turn the tables on the Ascot fourth Knot On Wood. The race marks the comeback of Les Arcs who demonstrated in no uncertain fashion that sprinting was his game when landing the Group One Golden Jubilee Stakes and the July Cup in 2006. If he has fully recovered from injury, he will have this opposition for breakfast, but there has to be a doubt after an absence of 416 days.

Advanced landed the Ayr Gold Cup last year and has been placed in Listed company. At his best he would be a tough nut to crack but he is hard to predict at present. Former champion sprinter Reverence looks a shadow of bygone days, while New Freedom made a respectable British debut in the Wokingham after starting in his career in Brazil and ending up in Dubai.

Rain would only enhance Anna Pavlova’s chances of landing the bet365 Lancashire Oaks and wouldn’t inconvenience last year’s winner Turbo Linn either. However, neither may cope with Jim Bolger’s Irish raider Ezima who returned to winning ways last time.